NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyes Bills and Chargers in Week 1, 2024 (2024)

There are three divisional-rivalry games on the Week 1 NFL schedule, including Texans vs. Colts. These teams played for the AFC South championship in Week 18 of last season, with Houston pulling out a 23-19 win and going on to win a playoff game before bowing out against the Ravens in the divisional round. The Texans are three-point road favorites according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds via the SportsLine Consensus. Which side should you back in that game and which other teams should you target as you make your Week 1 NFL predictions? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL oddsandNFL bettinglines on thespread,money line, andover-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. It's another divisional matchup and both teams will be hoping to make up ground on the Chiefs in the AFC West after shoring up their coaching staff in the offseason. Antonio Pierce went from interim head coach to a permanent hire and the Chargers landed Jim Harbaugh, who went 44-19-1 in four seasons with the 49ers and most recently won a national championship at Michigan.

We saw a decent sample size of the Raiders with Pierce, as he led them to a 5-4 record over the final nine games last season. However, Harbaugh's ability to quickly change a culture has been well-documented and he's got an elite quarterback at his disposal this time around in Justin Herbert. Los Angeles won 24-17 at home last season and the model is expecting more of the same, predicting that the Chargers cover in over 60% of simulations.See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals. Buffalo lost wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis from last year's roster, but it still has star quarterback Josh Allen. His top targets this season are tight end Dalton Kincaid, wide receiver Khalil Shakir and wide receiver Keon Coleman, so he still has plenty of talent at his disposal.

The Bills should not have any trouble moving the ball on Sunday, as Arizona's defense allowed the second-most points per game (26.8) in the NFL last season. The Cardinals also finished near the bottom of the league offensively, and it will be difficult for them to correct all of those issues against an elite Buffalo defense. Buffalo has covered the spread in seven of the last eight meetings between these teams, and the model has the Bills covering in almost 70% of the model's latest simulations.See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time.You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.

Week 1 NFL betting odds, lines, spreads

Get Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine

Sunday, Sept. 8

Steelers at Falcons (-3.5, 41.5)

Cardinals at Bills (-6.5, 47.5)

Titans at Bears (-3.5, 44.5)

Patriots at Bengals (-8.5, 41)

Texans at Colts (+3, 48.5)

Jaguars at Dolphins (-3.5, 49)

Panthers at Saints (-4, 41.5)

Vikings at Giants (+1.5, 41)

Raiders at Chargers (-3, 39.5)

Broncos at Seahawks (-6, 41.5)

Cowboys at Browns (-2.5, 41)

Commanders at Buccaneers (-3.5, 42.5)

Rams at Lions (-4.5, 52.5)

Monday, Sept. 9

Jets at 49ers (-4.5, 43.5)

NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyes Bills and Chargers in Week 1, 2024 (2024)

FAQs

How accurate is Vegas at predicting NFL games? ›

All Time (Since 2009)
538Vegas (Open)
Straight Up % % of winners picked correctly65.2%63.5%
RMSE Error in predicting final margin (lower is better)13.4513.31
ATS (Open) Record against the opening line on break-even or better plays52.6%
ATS (Close) Record against the closing line on break-even or better plays51.6%

How often do Moneyline favorites win in NFL? ›

NFL moneyline betting FAQs

How often does the moneyline favorite win in the NFL? Since 1985, NFL moneyline favorites have won 66.5 percent of the time.

How often are the Vegas NFL odds correct? ›

Essentially, this means that, on average, Vegas is within 2.2 wins in either direction of their projected win line total. This is accurate in the sense that it's close, but it's not accurate in the traditional sense. After all, Vegas has been off as much as 8.5 wins for a single win total line.

What is the most accurate NFL predictor? ›

Past Champions
YearMost Accurate
2019Kevin Seifert ESPN
2018Jamey Eisenberg CBS Sports
2017Jamey Eisenberg CBS Sports
2016Dave Richard CBS Sports
6 more rows

What is the best site for NFL score prediction? ›

OddsTrader is not just the leading platform for precise NFL predictions; it also guides you to the best NFL sportsbooks in your state. By combining our expert NFL score predictions with access to top-tier sportsbooks, OddsTrader empowers bettors with all the tools and information they need for football betting success.

Who is favored to win Las Vegas or LA Chargers? ›

The Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) and Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) will meet in a matchup of two division rivals. The Chargers are slight favorites (-2.5).

What are the Vegas odds for the Chargers to win the Super Bowl? ›

Chargers Super Bowl odds are currently +4200.

Who is projected to win, cowboys or Chargers? ›

Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Chargers vs. Cowboys odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 33.5. Before making any Cowboys vs. Chargers picks or predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein has to say.

How often do heavy favorites win? ›

Heavy moneyline favorite win pct since 2017
ML OddsImplied win %Actual win %
-650 to -70087-88%87%
-750 to -90088%-90%86%
-1000 to -150090%-94%91%
Oct 12, 2023

How often is the spread correct in the NFL? ›

Point spreads are chosen to be maximally difficult to beat, so even a success rate of 5% above a baseline would be considered a success. It has been said by certain professional sports bettors that one should not expect more than approximately 60% accuracy in betting, so this is the figure that we will strive towards.

Should you ever bet the moneyline? ›

The answer to this question comes down to your confidence level and risk tolerance. If your analysis tells you a 6.5-point underdog stands a good chance of winning the game outright, bet the moneyline. However, if you think that 6.5-point underdog will be competitive but likely not win, bet the point spread.

How do Vegas lines move? ›

Betting lines, including moneyline, spread, and over/under, shift due to public wagering patterns and adjustments by sportsbooks. Initially set to generate equal action on both sides, these lines can move based on the influx of bets, prompting bookmakers to adjust the odds to balance the betting.

How to read spread odds? ›

The point spread is the expected final score difference between two teams. It is represented as both a negative and positive number; if the spread is 3 points, you'll see that as both -3 and +3. The team that is the favorite to win gets the minus-number (-3); the underdog gets the plus-number (+3).

How often do Super Bowl favorites win? ›

SUPER BOWL SPREADS

Favorites have gone 37-20 straight up and 29-24-2 against the spread in Super Bowl history.

What is the most accurate football prediction site? ›

EaglePredict is the best football prediction site in the world with over 89.9% accuracy rate in our football betting tips.

How accurate are NFL projections? ›

Projections fluctuated wildly game-to-game, by +-40 a couple dozen times and +105 in one instance. That's why only 3.6% (not great, not terrible) of games have a difference less than 1. But over a large sample size, it averaged out to be stunningly accurate. One team even had an average difference of 0.03.

Does Vegas care who wins? ›

The Vegas odds makers are not trying to pick winners. By factoring risk variables, they are trying to predict outcomes so that they can return the odds for all bettors to 50/50 and "balance their book".

How does Vegas set NFL odds? ›

Oddsmakers will set the lines according to the implied probability of either outcome happening. The sum of the probabilities exceeds 100%, as sportsbooks take a small cut on both sides of a line. Second, sports betting odds dictate how much money a bettor needs to wager to make a certain profit.

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